Concept of human-oriented ecology requires that development-related ecological and environmental issues should be traced back to the root cause, improving the quality of human life (Chen et al., 2019). However, current ERA practices are mainly based on the characteristic indicators of ecological entities, such as point source threats and the changes in regional landscape patterns, while ignoring human well-being factors which are closely related to the functional attributes of entities.
Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA), which is aimed at appraising a wide range of undesirable impacts on ecosystems exposed to a possible eco-environmental hazard, is a highly recommended tool to be used in environmental decision-making. The model can be used as a useful tool to guide policy and risk management decisions, and to engage and negotiate with stakeholders with different views.Īccording to United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (Nkoom et al., 2018), urban ecological risks can be defined as possible adverse changes caused by urban development and construction in many directions including urban environment, ecological processes, ecological patterns, ecological functions, and human settlements. Adjusting these key variables can be simulated to effectively reduce the urban ecological risk.
There are three types of key paths: pollution dominant path (including Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan and Zhuhai), ES dominant path (including Shenzhen, Zhongshan and Jiangmen) and dual dominant path (including Zhaoqing and Huizhou) (3) Buildup area, afforestation area and wetland protection & restoration investment are the top three key human activities that impact the urban ecological risk. Results show that: (1) Zhongshan and Guangzhou tied for the city most at ecological risk and Foshan jumped to the city with the highest ecological risk after considering the impact of pollution (2) After analyzing the sensitive of human activities to ecological risks, the key risk transmission path of each city can be judged. Nine cities in the Pearl River Delta (China) are selected as a case to simulate the ecological risk transmission process. Direct and indirect impacts of urban human activities that threaten ecosystem services were considered. Ecosystem services are used as ecological risk measurement endpoints to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. This paper develops an urban ecological risk transmission conceptual framework based on Bayesian Network to quantify the non-linear transmission paths via HA (human activity) - ES (ecosystem service) - ER (ecological risk). Simulating this ecological risk transmission process helps to judge the key path and propose the accurate urban risk control measures.
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